Spatiotemporal Characterization of Variations in Road Traffic Accident Severity in Cole County Using Multiple GIS Techniques

Authors

  • Muqdad Al Hamami Civil Engineering Department, Wasit University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31185/wjes.Vol14.Iss3.975

Keywords:

Spatial Autocorrelation, Hotspot Analysis, Accident Risk Assessment, Spatial Clustering

Abstract

Whereas the recognition of the pattern of hotspot clusters is critical, this study fills the gap of understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of Road Traffic Accidents (RTAs) severity by selecting Cole County, which consists state’s capital, Jefferson City, between 2020 and 2023. Leveraging an effective GIS-based framework, the research assesses "endurance efficiency" in a three-phased methodology that involved systematic data integration, calculation of an Accident Severity Index (ASI) and sophisticated spatial statistics. In order to ensure statistical significance in the detection of clusters, the research uses Global Moran's I for the spatial autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi* for the localized hot/cold spot detection and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) for the high-resolution density mapping. The results show a steep fall in the number of accidents in April 2020, which is a direct byproduct of the containment measures against the coronavirus. Temporal analysis shows that Saturdays are the peak for RTAs in 2022 with adults (ages 25-64) making up 53% of all occurrences. Critically, high-severity incidents continued to cluster in the downtown of Jefferson City using multiple methods in the GIS analysis. These results deliver a granular, evidence-based foundation for urban planners and law enforcement to implement targeted safety interventions and optimize emergency response allocation.

References

[1] A. Chand, S. Jayesh, and A. B. Bhasi, "Road traffic accidents: An overview of data sources, analysis techniques and contributing factors," Materials Today: Proceedings, vol. 47, pp. 5135–5141, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2021.05.415. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2021.05.415

[2] Ł. Faruga, M. Karpierz, P. Kędziora, and T. Kaczmarek, "Dataset for traffic accident analysis in Poland," Applied Sciences, vol. 15, no. 13, p. 7362, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/app15137362. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app15137362

[3] T. Tollazzi, M. Rencelj, and S. Turnšek, "Fatal motorcycle accidents," Sustainability, vol. 17, no. 3, p. 876, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/su17030876. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su17030876

[4] R. Zhang, Y. Liu, X. Chen, and Z. Wang, "Multimodal large language models for accident analysis," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 219, p. 108077, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2025.108077. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2025.108077

[5] N. Lendo, M. Kováč, and P. Bartoš, "Driver injury severity in road accidents," Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2026, https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2026-0080 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cee-2026-0080

[6] World Health Organization, "Road traffic injuries," 2026, https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[7] Association for Safe International Road Travel, "Annual global road crash statistics," 2026, https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[8] Missouri Department of Transportation, "Number and rate of fatalities," 2026, https://www.modot.org/. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[9] Statista, "Commercial vehicles: Market data & analysis," 2026, https://www.statista.com/. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[10] F. Alhomaidat, M. Abdel-Aty, and J. Lee, "How does an increased freeway speed limit influence the frequency of crashes on adjacent roads," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 136, p. 105433, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105433. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105433

[11] M. Al Hamami, A. A. Abdulsaeed, Y. R. Muhsen, N. A. Husin, and A. Aldahhan, “Sustainable route selection using fuzzy MCDM techniques,” Hochschule Anhalt, 2025, 13 pp. http://dx.doi.org/10.25673/123182.

[12] M. Al Hamami and T. C. Matisziw, "Measuring the spatiotemporal evolution of accident hot spots," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 157, p. 106133, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106133. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106133

[13] M. Awad, H. El-Basyouny, and A. Barua, "A state-of-the-art review of injury severity analysis in traffic crashes," Innovative Infrastructure Solutions, vol. 11, no. 1, p. 19, 2026, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-025-02409-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-025-02409-9

[14] W. T. Gedamu, B. B. Dinka, and T. T. Alemu, "Spatio-temporal analysis of road traffic crashes," Transportation Engineering, vol. 20, p. 100327, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.treng.2025.100327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.treng.2025.100327

[15] B. F. Deressa, T. T. Tulu, and G. G. Kassa, "A systematic review of GIS-driven road traffic accident evaluation," Vehicles, vol. 7, no. 4, p. 161, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/vehicles7040161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vehicles7040161

[16] D. K. Endashaw, B. B. Assefa, and A. T. Mekonnen, "A systematic review on GIS-based road traffic accidents analysis," Computational Urban Science, vol. 5, no. 1, p. 53, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s43762-025-00221-w. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43762-025-00221-w

[17] B. C. Jayasinghe, N. Perera, and S. Amarasinghe, "Evaluating geographical variations of road traffic accidents," Revue Internationale de Géomatique, vol. 34, no. 1, pp. 707–729, 2025, https://doi.org/10.32604/rig.2025.067395. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32604/rig.2025.067395

[18] K. Hazaymeh, A. Almagbile, and A. H. Alomari, "Spatiotemporal analysis of traffic accidents hotspots," ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, vol. 11, no. 4, p. 260, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11040260.

[19] M. S. Alam and N. J. Tabassum, "Spatial pattern identification and crash severity analysis of road traffic crash hot spots in Ohio," Heliyon, vol. 9, no. 5, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e35107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16303

[20] W. T. Gedamu, B. B. Dinka, and T. T. Alemu, "A spatial autocorrelation analysis of road traffic crash by severity," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 200, p. 107535, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107535. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107535

[21] R. K. Mahato et al., "A spatial autocorrelation analysis of road traffic accidents," BMC Public Health, vol. 24, p. 3086, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20586-7.

[22] R. Bhele, S. Patil, and M. Kulkarni, "Spatial and temporal analysis of road traffic accidents using GIS," International Journal on Engineering Technology, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 1–18, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/injet.v2i1.72464

[23] P. Sae-Ngow, S. Charoenkit, and N. Srisurapanon, "Identification of road crash zones," GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites, vol. 60, pp. 1067–1077, 2025, https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.602spl04-1480. DOI: https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.602spl04-1480

[24] S. Mohammed, A. Al-Obaidi, and M. Hassan, "GIS-based spatiotemporal analysis for road traffic crashes," Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, vol. 20, p. 100836, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100836. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100836

[25] S. Younes and A. Oloufa, "A geospatial framework for traffic crash analysis," Urban Science, vol. 9, no. 10, p. 411, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9100411. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci9100411

[26] C. Xu, Y. Wang, and Z. Li, "Analysis of spatiotemporal factors affecting traffic accidents," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems, vol. 149, no. 10, p. 04023098, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.TEENG-7990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.TEENG-7990

[27] H. Zhu, Y. Zhou, and Y. Chen, "Identification of potential traffic accident hot spots," MATEC Web of Conferences, vol. 325, p. 01005, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202032501005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202032501005

[28] A. Al-Azzawi, N. Al-Saoudi, and M. Abdul-Ghani, "Evaluation of traffic management plans in CBD area within Baghdad City," in Applications of Advanced Technology in Transportation, pp. 572–577, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1061/40799(213)91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/40799(213)91

[29] H. Harirforoush, M. Yazdani, and A. Karimi, "Spatial and temporal analysis of seasonal traffic accidents," American Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 10–16, 2019, https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20190401.12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtte.20190401.12

[30] Y. Chen, X. Liu, and H. Wang, "Spatiotemporal analysis of crash severity on rural highway," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 165, p. 106538, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106538

[31] J. Abdunazarov, K. Azizov, and I. Shukurov, "Method of analysis of the reasons and consequences of traffic accidents in Uzbekistan cities," International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 483–490, 2020, https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.100407. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.100407

[32] M. Faishal, A. Rahman, and S. Hossain, "Assessing the accident severity level of passenger vessels," International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 53–66, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.150106

[33] U. Sirisha and S. C. Bolem, "Utilizing a hybrid model for crash severity prediction," Traitement du Signal, vol. 40, no. 5, p. 2233, 2023, https://doi.org/10.18280/ts.400540 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ts.400540

[34] G. M. Suleiman, A. A. Mohammed, and H. K. Ibrahim, "Effect of transportation parameters on road traffic accident severity," International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 129–134, 2021, https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.110201. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.110201

[35] A. Afolayan, O. Ogunleye, and T. Adeyemi, "GIS-based spatial analysis of accident hotspots: A Nigerian case study," Infrastructures, vol. 7, no. 8, p. 103, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures7080103. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures7080103

[36] U.S. Census Bureau, "QuickFacts: Cole County, Missouri," 2026, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/colemissouri. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[37] Missouri State Highway Patrol, "Statistical Analysis Center," 2025, https://www.mshp.dps.missouri.gov/. [Accessed: Apr. 28, 2026].

[38] S. Zhao, K. Wang, C. Liu, and E. Jackson, "Freeway crash analysis considering monthly variation in traffic volumes and weather conditions using time series random effect negative binomial models," Transportation Research Board, no. 18-05263, 2018.

[39] B. Bae, J. Park, and H. Kim, "Identifying temporal aggregation effect on crash-frequency modeling," Sustainability, vol. 13, no. 11, p. 6214, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116214

[40] Y. Li and Y. Bai, "Development of crash-severity-index models," Accident Analysis & Prevention, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 1724–1731, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.012

[41] M. Rodionova, A. Ivanov, and D. Petrov, "Prediction of crash severity using machine learning approaches," Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 16, p. 9840, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/su14169840. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14169840

[42] K. Van Raemdonck and C. Macharis, "The road accident analyzer: methodology and application," Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 130–151, 2014, https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2013.826314. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2013.826314

[43] H. Abdurhman, Y. Qiu, H. Shams, and M. A. Damos, "GIS-based identification of traffic incident hot spots and severity index in Khartoum, Sudan," Tuijin Jishu/Journal of Propulsion Technology, vol. 45, no. 4, 2024.

[44] M. Shafay et al., "Seasonal and time-series analysis of road traffic accidents: Seasonal analysis of road accidents," Pakistan Journal of Health Sciences, vol. 5, no. 05, pp. 121–125, 2024, https://doi.org/10.54393/pjhs.v5i05.1547. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54393/pjhs.v5i05.1547

[45] K. Bucsuházy, R. Zůvala, and J. Ambros, "Analysis of COVID-19 restrictions’ influence on road traffic crashes and related road users’ behaviour in the Czech Republic," Archives of Transport, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 109–121, 2023, https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0053.6084. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0053.6084

[46] N. Alsaleh, N. Falis, T. Alsaleh, and F. Ba Fakih, "Traffic collisions: Temporal patterns and severity-weighted hotspot analysis," arXiv, 2026, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2601.12548. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2026.3718434

[47] O. A. Taiwo, S. A. Hassan, R. B. Mohsin, and N. Mahmud, "Analysis of accident predictability and the use of driver behaviour questionnaire: A systematic review," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 80–90, 2024, https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.803164. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47772/IJRISS.2024.803164

[48] A. Taheri, N. Naderi, and M. Salehi, "Empirical analysis of crash injury severity among young drivers in England," Applied Sciences, vol. 15, no. 9, p. 4793, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/app15094793. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app15094793

[49] S. Bačkalić, D. Đorđević, P. Petrović, and D. Milenković, "A case study on predicting road casualties among young drivers in the EU," Safety, vol. 11, no. 4, p. 107, 2025, https://doi.org/10.3390/safety11040107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/safety11040107

[50] S. Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, S. Moradi, M. Rahimi, and S. Rezapour, "Risk assessment of young driver behavior using an extended fuzzy model," Soft Computing, 2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-025-11087-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-025-11087-8

[51] X. Ye, C. Xu, X. Liu, F. Chen, H. Liu, and H. Huang, "Identifying urban crash concentration areas using spatial statistical methods: A case study in Nanjing, China," Journal of Advanced Transportation, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6662760. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6662760

[52] H. She, C. Liao, and C. Lee, "Quantifying the relationship between traffic volume and crash frequency using random parameter models," Transportation Research Record, vol. 2677, no. 1, pp. 181–193, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221125232.

[53] R. K. Mahato et al., "A spatial autocorrelation analysis of road traffic accidents by severity using Moran’s I spatial statistics: a study from Nepal 2019–2022," BMC Public Health, vol. 24, p. 3086, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20586-7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20586-7

[54] K. Hazaymeh, A. Almagbile, and A. H. Alomari, "Spatiotemporal analysis of traffic accidents hotspots based on geospatial techniques," ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, vol. 11, no. 4, p. 260, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11040260. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11040260

[55] K. Alkaabi, F. Al-Khayat, and H. Hamed, "Identification of hotspot areas for traffic accidents and analyzing drivers’ behaviors and road accidents," Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100929. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100929

[56] A. M. Amiri, N. Nadimi, V. Khalifeh, and M. Shams, "GIS-based crash hotspot identification: a comparison among mapping clusters and spatial analysis techniques," International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion, vol. 28, pp. 325–338, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2021.1925924. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2021.1925924

Downloads

Published

2026-09-01

Issue

Section

Civil Engineering

How to Cite

Al Hamami, M. (2026). Spatiotemporal Characterization of Variations in Road Traffic Accident Severity in Cole County Using Multiple GIS Techniques. Wasit Journal of Engineering Sciences, 14(3), 38-54. https://doi.org/10.31185/wjes.Vol14.Iss3.975